First Annual Conference 2011


Participants of the EAP First Annual Conference: 
From front to left: Miriam Coronel-Ferrer, Wang Dong, Hoang Anh Tuan, Wang Yizhou, Zou Keyuan, Peter Wallensteen (behind), Isak Svensson, Moon Chung-in, Susanne Schaftenaar, Thommy Svensson, Stein Tönnesson, Erik Melander. Standing from left: Mei Shanshan, Jong Kun Choi, Tang Chih-Mao, Ryu Yongwook, Anders Engvall, Bates Gill, Thomas Nielsen, Robert S. Ross, Mikael Weissmann, Elin Bjarnegård, Timo Kivimäki, Börje Ljunggren.



The EAP First Annual conference 2011 has been held in Uppsala from 16 - 18 Sept. The Chair of the Advisory Board, Peter Wallensteen's, Eight Points Summary on the East Asian Peace can be found full text below. The schedule, a list of participants, and abstracts from the papers presented at the conference can be accessed here: 

- Schedule

- List of participants

- Paper abstracts 

 

Eight Points on the East Asian Peace


by Professor Peter Wallensteen, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University


Eight-point summary comment delivered at the concluding session of the East Asian Peace Program’s First Annual Conference, Uppsala, Sweden, September 16-18, 2011


Eight is the lucky number, and there are eight points that came out with a particular strength in this meeting.


1. East Asia: Who are in the Region?  In the founding documents of the program 18 states are listed, 6 in Northeast Asia and 12 in Southeast Asia. These are all countries located in the geographical region, but does this capture all important state actors influencing the region? There is one obvious No. 19 that was frequently alluded to during our deliberations: The United States. Should it be regarded as a member and thus included in statistics? Would US involvements in other parts of the world also be part of the program’s concern? Or should the US be regarded as an independent (unpredictable?) variable? Clearly the region is more internationalized or globalized than many others. Global considerations also enter the region’s dynamics.

However, if this question is raised it also opens-up questions about other influential actors and their role in the region’s relations. Some references have been made to a No. 20: Russia, a No. 21: India, a No. 22: Australia. Is it farfetched also to think of a No. 23: the EU?

How the program can handle such actors needs to be considered. There are many ways ranging from commissioned papers to specific themes at annual program conferences.


2. East Asia: Is it One Region? Many papers have drawn a distinction between Northeast and Southeast Asia. There are no armed conflicts since 1980 in the former, but many in the latter, but the dangers of escalation to large scale warfare may be higher in the former than in the latter. During the conference there were a number of suggested explanations for conflict patterns that were specific to one or the other region, notably the role of the presidency, the history of state formation, gender dimensions, etc. It was also claimed that while inter-state relations had become more peaceful in Southeast Asia, they had become more conflictual in Northeast Asia in recent years. Thus, the program will have to balance region-wide explanations with country or area-specific ones. This interaction between levels and explanations may be beneficial for a deeper understanding of war and peace.


3. What May Democracy Explain? One general explanation figured prominently at this particular conference, it was also its theme: democracy. At first it seemed that democracy would not be a plausible explanation for the absence or limited extent of violence in the whole region. However, several studies looked at alternative ways of measuring democracy, pointing to the possible effects of observing lower scores on the democracy scales; or taking long term developments into consideration. It was also pointed out that democratization in one country may have effects for peace both inside that country, on its relations with other countries, and on internal developments in other countries. Thus, there may be more to the question of democracy than just the lack of war between democracies, and thus the conference stimulated further thinking on the short and long term effects of democratization on peace in the region.


4. Are There Solid Alternative Explanations? A number of alternatives were put forward and many seemed fruitful in addition to customary military balance (‘realist’) variables, notably matters of identity distance, national priority shifts, gender and, not the least economic factors.  The economics of peace may be a necessary topic for further exploration.  The idea of a capitalist peace (i.e. the reverse of Lenin’s expectations of capitalist wars) is suggestive, but it is unclear what the causal mechanisms would be. Would economic growth necessarily lead to protracted peace, or could it make some countries stronger than others and fuel rivalries? Would economic growth combined with regional integration be a better option, since it would restrain the option to resort to hostile behavior among states? Would economic growth with integration and a redefinition of the ‘national project’ as one of welfare building, be the ultimate combination for long-term peace? Or is it the transnational effects of trade and mutual investments that is the key? Possibly economists could contribute to such a discussion. This is something for the Core Group to consider.


5. Is there a Research Method for this Problem? The methodological challenge of addressing a zero variable came up at various instances of the conference. It is customary to explain war, but this program focuses on non-war: Why has there not been any major war in the region for such a long period? For instance: To start a war could be the matter of one decision by one actor at one moment in time. To prevent such an occurrence, however, requires a number of decisions by many over a long period of time.  So to explain non-war  requires an understanding of habits, learning and expectations that have to be shared among diverse societies, and probably seen in a similar light by all of them. Explaining peace, in other words, is different from explaining war, and there may be important methodological lessons to be learned from the program.


6. To What should East Asia be Compared? The observation of a reduction of war in East Asia builds on a comparison with the rest of the world. The region displays a different pattern from other regions, notably in the 1980s. But are there daring cross-regional comparisons that could be done? Could Northeast Asia today be compared to the situation in Europe in the middle of the 1970s? Could a systematic comparison of the end of the Cold War in different regions generate significant lessons? The matter of a sustained peace would require an investigation of other longer periods of peace. What would a study of the long  European peace before World War I  tell us? After all, it lasted for 40 years and was, by many, seen as a stabilizing system of alliances that would keep the peace.


7. How Solid is the East Asian Peace? There were data presented at the conference that did not fit with the overall pattern, notably on militarized inter-state disputes (MIDs), territorial disputes that gave rise to strong sentiments, secondary support patterns that went on much longer than one might assume (and with various kinds of external actors, such as Islamist networks). Perhaps such information could be treated as indicators of the fragility of the present ‘arrangement’. Further to this, one must take into consideration that there are arms deliveries, unresolved territorial disputes, financial uncertainties, very few peace agreements and very little resort to extra-regional mediation. Indicators of fragility would have to be part of an understanding of the present ‘peace’ in East Asia.


8. Does the Program have a Message? Some consideration was given to the output from the program. The plan includes some 150 papers, a number of articles, book chapters, books and other presentations. There are good reasons to make the website as attractive and lively as possible. It may also be a good idea to work towards some form of Concerned Scientists’ Statement on the East Asian Peace? It would be based on the reports and general consensus that the participants share and perhaps be a statement that also could generate interest. It could point to the strengths as well as the weakness of the present state of the East Asian Peace, possibly including general recommendations or courses of action. For the time being, it was left as one more matter for the program Core Group and the Advisory Board to consider.


____

The Advisory Board of the East Asian Peace program at Uppsala University is chaired by Professor Peter Wallensteen (Uppsala University), and has the following members, all of whom took part in its constitutive meeting on 16 September 2011:
• Professor Kevin Clements (University of Otago, New Zealand)
• Director Bates Gill (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI)
• Ambassador Börje Ljunggren (former Swedish ambassador to Vietnam and China and co-ordinator, Stockholm China Forum)•Professor Moon Chung-in (Yonsei University, Seoul)
• Professor Robert S. Ross (Boston College)
• Professor Thommy Svensson (Stockholm China Alliance and Nordic Institute of Asian Studies, Copenhagen)
• Professor Wang Yizhou (Beijing University).
 

EAP

News

2017-05-15

Daniel Finnbogason & Isak Svensson (2017): "The missing jihad: Why have there been no jihadist civil wars in Southeast Asia?", The Pacific Review, DOI: 10.1080/09512748.2017.1325391 (published online 15 May)
 

2017-05-02

On 2 May 2017, the Danish ThinkChina published a policy brief by Stein Tønnesson: Can the East Asian Peace Survive? (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZLQ0vmxi68)

17-02-02

Sino-Russia relations

EAP Program Leader Stein Tönnesson and Research Associate Pavel Baev publish "The Troubled Russia–China Partnership as a Challenge to the East Asian Peace" in the Fudan Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences. 

17-01-22

South Korea-US relations

EAP Research Associate Jong Kun Choi was interviewed in an article titled "Korea should avoid getting stuck between US, China" in the Korea Herald.

17-01-05

Can the East Asian Peace Survive under Trump?

Norwegian public radio interviewed program leader Stein Tønnesson about this question on 5 January 2017, together with Dr Eirik Torsvoll, (PluriCourts program, University of Oslo), and  Professor Nils Petter Gleditsch (Peace Research Institute Oslo, PRIO). Professor Gleditsch has recently published a book in Norwegian, entitled Towards a More Peaceful World? During the discussion, Stein Tønnesson presented findings from the East Asian Peace program and predicted a crisis in Sino-US relations but he also saw some win-win opportunities in connection with a reset of Sino-US terms of trade. He thought the East Asian Peace would hold - because everyone knows how catastrophic  the alternative could be.

If you understand Norwegian, you may listen to the discussion here.

16-12-2016

War or peace in East Asia?

Stein Tönnesson will participate in a seminar titled "War or Peace in East Asia?" at NIAS-Nordic Institute of Asian Studies, University of Copenhagen. More information can be found here.

7-12-2016

US-Asia relations

EAP Advisory Board member Bates Gill publishes "Can Trump keep his balance in Asia?" in the Pacific Forum newsletter published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies

7-12-2016

The East Asian Peace: Can it Last?

EAP Advisory Board member Börje Ljunggren will give a talk titled "The East Asian Peace: Can it Last?" Co-sponsored by the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies and the Harvard University Asia Center. More information can be found here. 

25-11-2016

Our film screened in Cambodia

Our 16 minutes film East Asia's Surprising Peace  was screened at the 5th Annual Peace Practitioners Research Conference in Siem Reap, Cambodia, on 25 November 2016.

Afterwards, Stein Tønnesson gave a keynote address about the East Asian Peace and how it can be made more viable. The artist Chan Wai made the drawing here, summarizing the main points. It includes an illustration used in Japanese schoolbooks from 1947 onward to show Japan's renunciation of war.

23-11-2016

Trust and Distrust in Sino-American Relations

Professor Steve Chan will give a talk titled "Trust and Distrust in Sino-American Relations" at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University. The talk will be held in Sal. 2 from 15:15-17:00 on 23 November.

22-09-2016

The East Asian Peace – in Swedish!

Stein Tønnesson, Isak Svensson and Elin Bjarnegård gave a 30 minute presentation of the East Asian Peace programme at the Göteborg book fair on 22 September 2016, emphasizing the disagreements among themselves as to how the peace may be explained, and whether or not the region can be considered peaceful. See their presentation here.

04-07-2016

Is the East Asian Peace threatened?

The 4th of July 2016 China Day at the annual Swedish Almedalen week in Visby, Gotland, includes a panel at 1 pm about the East Asian Peace, where program core group members Joakim Kreutz and Isak Svensson, and Advisory Board Member Börje Ljunggren discuss (in Swedish) if the East Asian Peace is under threat. For the full program of the China Day, see: https://www.facebook.com/events/1712190189030851/

03-06-2016

South China Sea

On June 3, 2016 the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) published online the report Sense and sensibility: adressing the South China Sea disputes, edited by Eva Pejsova. It includes chapters by two of the East Asian Peace program’s researchers: Liselotte Odgaard, “How to defuse Sino-US tensions in the SCS?” (pp. 17-23) and Stein Tønnesson, “UN Compulsory Arbitration: A tough test for China” (pp. 25-30).

11-05-2016

Conflict in East Asia

EAP Program leader Stein Tönnesson publishes ‘Will Nationalism Drive Conflict in Asia?’ in Nations and Nationalism journal. 

26-04-2016

EAP-Can it last?

EAP Program leader Stein Tönnesson participated in a roundtable discussion titled "The East Asian Peace: Can it Last?" at NIAS-Nordic Institute for Asian Studies in Copenhagen on 26 April. 

13-04-2016

Myanmar

EAP Program leader Stein Tönnesson publishes "Myanmar’s ethnic minorities marginalised more" in East Asia Forum with Marte Nilsen.

07-03-2016

EAP Advisory Board member Börje Ljunggren publishes "Växande oro för Kinas framtidsdrömmar" in Svenska Dagbladet. 

15-02-2016

Myanmar

EAP Research Associate Ashley South publishes "Schooling and Conflict: Ethnic Education and Mother Tongue-based Teaching in Myanmar" with Marie Lall. 

10-02-2016

China-Taiwan relations

Scott L. Kastner publishes "Is the Taiwan Strait
Still a Flash Point? Rethinking the Prospects for Armed
Conflict between China and Taiwan"
based on EAP Fourth Annual Conference paper in International Security. 

03-02-2016

Nonviolence

EAP Core Group member Isak Svensson publishes "Manufacturing Dissent: Modernization and the Onset of Major Nonviolent Resistance Campaigns" in the Journal for Conflict Resolution with Dr Charles Butcher.

13-01-2016

North Korea

EAP Research Associate Jong Kun Choi publishes "The Perils of Strategic Patience with North Korea" in the Washington Quarterly journal.