Project Manager

Nina von Uexkull, Ph.D Candidate

Project Period

August 2003- ongoing

Contact Person

Nina von Uexkull

Project Researchers

Erik Melander
Peter Wallensteen
Magnus Öberg

Project Description

A key puzzle for researchers and policymakers is how mediators and other third parties can contribute to preventing and ending violent conflict. A series of armed conflicts such as in Rwanda and Darfur have resulted in major human disasters and even genocide. These and other cases point to the necessity of finding effective means to prevent conflicts from escalating and finding a solution at an early stage.

Addressing this need the UCDP Conflict Prevention and Management Project focuses on the systematic study of third party conflict prevention and peacemaking efforts. To this end, it is collecting comprehensive data on a number of third party measures, such as mediation and peacekeeping. 

The UCDP Managing Intrastate Conflict (MIC) dataset (completion expected in spring 2012 ) will cover third party peacemaking events in Africa in all active intrastate conflict dyads resulting in more than 25 battle-related deaths in the post Cold War period. Additionally, third party measures will be coded for three years after the fighting is terminated.

The MIC dataset expands the Managing Intrastate Low-level Conflict (MILC) dataset, which includes international conflict preventive measures for all minor intrastate conflicts for the period of 1993-2004. Using the MILC dataset project researchers have shown, for example, that the type of third party seems to be more important for conflict prevention than the type of measure. Moreover, findings indicate that third-party mediation is not generally associated with a lower risk of escalation to war. (Melander et. al. 2009) Data for MILC was collected in collaboration with the Folke Bernadotte Academy.

Publications 

Melander, Erik and Nina von Uexkull (2011) "Managing Intrastate Conflicts 1993-2004: a new dataset." Paper prepared for presentation at the International Studies Association Annual Convention, Montreal, Canada, 16-19 March.  

Öberg, Magnus & Frida Möller (2010). “Beat about the bush or cut to the chase? How the sequencing of issues in mediation processes affects the likelihood of reaching a negotiated agreement”, Paper prepared for presentation at the International Studies Association (ISA) Annual Convention, New Orleans, 17-20 February 2010.

Melander, Erik (2009). "Selected to Go Where Murderers Lurk? The Preventive Effect of Peacekeeping on Mass Killings of Civilians." Conflict Management and Peace Sciences, 26(4): 389-406.

Melander, Erik, Frida Möller & Magnus Öberg (2009). "Managing Intrastate Low-intensity Armed Conflict 1993-2004: A New Dataset." International Interactions, 35(2): 1-28.

Öberg, Magnus, Frida Möller & Peter Wallensteen (2009). "Early Conflict Prevention in Ethnic Crises: A New Dataset," Conflict Management and Peace Science, 26(1): 67-91.

Wallensteen, Peter, Karl de Rouen, Jacob Bercovitch & Frida Möller (2009), “Democracy and mediation in territorial civil wars in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific”, Asia-Europe Journal 7: 241-264.

Wallensteen, Peter & Frida Möller (2008). "Svensk forskning kan förebygga väpnade konfliker", Tvärsnitt nr 3.

Wallensteen, Peter & Frida Möller (2008). "Third Parties in Conflict Prevention: A Systematic Look", in Mellbourn, Anders & Peter Wallensteen (eds.), Conflict Prevention and Third Parties.

Möller, Frida, Karl DeRouen, Jacob Bercovitch & Peter Wallensteen (2007). "The Limits of Peace. Third Parties in Civil Wars in Southeast Asia, 1993-2004", Negotiation Journal 23(4).

NB. This is an electronic version of an article published in Negotiation Journal complete citation information for the final version of the paper, as published in the print edition of Negotiation Journal, is available on the Blackwell Synergy online delivery service, accessible via the journal’s website.

Isak Svensson & Frida Möller (2007). “Who Prevents Civil Wars? Mediation Selection in Minor Armed Conflicts”. The Annual Convention of International Studies Association (ISA), 28 februari - 3 mars 2007, Chicago, USA

Möller, Frida & Peter Wallensteen (2005). "Mot fred i det euroeiska rummet? Konflikttrender i Europa, Mellanöstern, Afrika och Centralasien 1989-2003", Krisberedskapsmyndighetens (KBM) temaserie 12.

Wallensteen, Peter & Frida Möller (2003). “Conflict Prevention: Methodology for Knowing the Unknown.” Uppsala Peace Research Papers No. 7.

Main Financial Support

• Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame, USA
• National Science Foundation (NSF), USA
• The Folke Bernadotte Academy (Folke Bernadotteakademin)
• Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (Myndigheten för samhällsskydd och beredskap)

Useful links

The Folke Bernadotte Academy
Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies
Madariaga European Foundation