Predicting Conflict

The Violence Early-Warning System (ViEWS) is a publicly available, data-driven forecasting system based at Uppsala University and Peace Research Institute Oslo. It generates monthly predictions of the number of fatalities in impending state-based conflict 1-36 months ahead, as well as probabilistic assessments of the likelihood that given conflict thresholds will be met – for each country and 55x55 km location in Africa and the Middle East. 

Current forecasts


ViEWS has been developed with funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no 694640), Uppsala University, Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UN-ESCWA), the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), and the United Kingdom Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO). ViEWS computations are performed on resources provided by the Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC) at Uppsala Multidisciplinary Center for Advanced Computational Science (UPPMAX).

Senast uppdaterad: 2023-09-28