Current forecasts

Each month, we generate new conflict forecasts for the next 1-36 months. We publish written summaries of the forecasts for the next quarter in the Risk Monitor series, and release datasets for the full forecasting window via the VIEWS API. 

Summary reports of the forecasts for 2018-2021 can be downloaded below. For more recent forecasts, please visit our dedicated website, where you can read our monthly forecast summaries (the Risk Monitor) and download our latest forecast data.

Historic summary reports, Jun 2018-Dec 2021

More detailed forecasts, including estimation results

Senast uppdaterad: 2022-10-17