Current forecasts

The outputs from ViEWS are probabilistic assessments of the risk and likely severity of three types of conflict events at two levels of analysis. Each month, we release forecasts for the next 1-36 months. We publish summaries of the forecasts for the next quarter in the Risk Monitor series, and release datasets with the most recent ensemble forecasts.

Summary reports of the forecasts for 2018-2021 can be downloaded below. For more recent forecasts, please visit our dedicated website, where you can read our monthly forecast summaries (the Risk Monitor) and download our latest forecast data.

historic summary reports, jun 2018-Dec 2021

More detailed forecasts, including estimation results

Senast uppdaterad: 2022-04-25