Prediction competition

We invite researchers to participate in a ViEWS (a political Violence Early-Warning System) initiative - a friendly ‘prediction competition’ where the task is to predict changes in the intensity of organised political violence. We seek contributions of various sorts — the use of new methods, new data, or improved feature engineering.

If you are interested in participating, we ask you to send a 200-300 word abstract of your suggested contribution to us by 15 March 2020. We will then review the suggestions for consistency with the setup of the competition. Selected contributors will be invited to a workshop in Uppsala 8-9 October.

We will need a complete set of predictions for the competition and a brief write-up by 30 September 2020. We seek to publish a journal special issue/edited volume from the project, with a combination of an overview article with all contributors as co-authors and more in-depth presentation of selected contributions. More details about the prediction competition can be found in the PDF document at the bottom of this page.

We hope that you find this as exciting as we do and are tempted to develop a model for the project.

If you have any questions, or are ready to submit an abstract, send an email to havard.hegre@pcr.uu.se with copy to liana.lopes@pcr.uu.se.

ViEWS prediction competition