Our country-month (cm) forecasts are presented in the maps above. The country-level forecasts are here shown for Africa only, but half of the constituent models are trained on global data. Our models yield results in line with mainstream studies of conflict at the country level. For instance, we forecast a high risk of state-based conflict in countries with large populations, in non-democracies and countries with recent regime change, with low or negative growth rates, and with low education levels or other indicators of low socio-economic development.
Moreover, we predict a high risk in countries that have a recent history of conflict or with recent protest events. In Mali, Nigeria, DR Congo, and Somalia at least one conflict event is almost certain. We also forecast a high probability of state-based conflict (sb) in Cameroon, as the recent violence continues. Tensions and violence betwen anglophones and francophones observed since 2016 have escalated after separatists symbolically declared the independence of `Ambazonia' in October 2017. Violence continued over the summer of 2018, as did clashes between government forces and IS (often referred to as Boko Haram) in the North. In Kenya, too, we forecast a high probability of a state-based conflict event, as clashes between the government and Al-Shabaab have been reported in, and in months leading up to, December 2018. Our forecasts also indicate that the situation will remain volatile in Egypt, in particular due to Jihadi activities in the Sinai.
The risk of one-sided conflicts responds about similarly to the same factors, but are less clearly related to protests, regime change, and also occur more frequently in newly independent countries. We forecast a high probability also of non-state conflict in Kenya due to recent confrontations between cattle rustlers and herders. Furthermore, actors with unclear affiliation carried out attacks against civilians. Kenya, again, will see continued one-sided violence, most likely perpetrated by the Al-Shabaab and the government of Kenya. Our forecasts also show that the probability of one-sided events is pronounced in Nigeria and Cameroon (predominantly given IS/Boko Haram), DR Congo, Central African Republic, and Somalia.
For more information see, see the monthly forecasts report for January 2019
- Country-level forecasts, January 2019, state-based conflict
- Country-level forecasts, January 2019, non-state conflict
- Country-level forecasts, January 2019, one-sided violence
Please cite: Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Thomas Chadefaux, Michael Colaresi, Mihai Croicu, Hanne Fjelde, Frederick Hoyles, Lisa Hultman, Stina Högbladh, Sayeed Auwn Muhammad, Desiree Nilsson, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Gudlaug Olafsdottir, Kristina Petrova, David Randahl, Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Nina von Uexkull, Jonas Vestby, "ViEWS: A political Violence Early Warning System", Uppsala University: Typescript.