Country level

Our country-month (cm) forecasts are presented in the maps above. Our models yield results in line with mainstream studies of conflict at the country level. For instance, we forecast a higher risk of state-based conflict in countries with large populations, in non-democracies and countries with recent regime change, with low or negative growth rates, and with low education levels or other indicators of low socio-economic development.

We continue to forecast a high probability of state-based conflict in countries that have a recent history of conflict or protest events. Particularly in Egypt, Mali, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Cameroon, DR Congo, Somalia and Mozambique, the risk of at least one state-based conflict

We continue to forecast a high probability of state-based conflict in countries that have a recent history of conflict or protest events. Particularly in Egypt, Mali, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Cameroon, DR Congo, Somalia and Mozambique, the risk of at least one state-based conflict event is high and over 50%.

Compared to last month's forecast, the greatest increase of the risk of a state-based conflict is in Algeria, where on 18 November clashes between IS and the Government of Algeria in the southern province of Tamanrasset (bordering Mali) led to at least two people dead.

Risk also increased in Central African Republic, where clashes between government security forces and the Patriotic Movement for the Central African Republic (MPC) in Kaga-Bandoro led to five rebel casualties. The government additionally clashed with the UPC on 21 and 27 November, leading to a yet unknown number of casualties, while in the capital of Bangui, clashes with ex-Seleka members on 19 November left around ten people dead.

We also find a slight but relevant increase for Mozambique this month, where in November operations against islamist militants in Cabo Delgado province continued. Numerous militants, soldiers, and civilians passed as a result of different events throughout the month. On 6 November, moreover, an ambush perpetrated by a suspected Renamo splinter group in the country's central province of Manica left three dead.

Conversely, the risk significantly decreased for Kenya, Ethiopia, and Chad as no candidate state-based events were recorded by the UCDP in these countries for the month of November.

The forecast maps for non-state conflict follow partly the same patterns as state-based conflict, but the patterns of past events do differ across conflict types. Nigeria, DR Congo, Kenya, and Somalia remain at particularly high risk of non-state violence this month.

Compared to last month's forecast, we find no significant increase in the risk of non-state violence. The risk does notably decrease for Mali: despite numerous state-based conflict events recorded in November, no non-state conflict event was recorded in the UCDP's candidate event data for that month. The risk remains of future non-state violence remains moderately high, however.

Risk has also relevantly decreased in South Africa and Mozambique, as for these countries too, no new non-state conflict events were recorded in November 2019.

The probability of one-sided violence events remains especially pronounced this month in Mali and Burkina Faso, Nigeria (predominantly given Boko Haram/IS), DR Congo, Mozambique, and Somalia (predominantly given Al-Shabaab).

Compared to our December forecast the model ensemble responds strongly to the case of Tanzania in particular, where on 12 November attackers presumed to be IS coming from Mozambique killed six civilians in Ngongo village, Mtwara region. Nonetheless, the risk of future one-sided violence in Tanzania remains comparatively low.

Kenya also shows a relevant increase in the risk of one-sided violence, caused by a presumed Al-Shabaab attack on university workers, leading to two civilian casualties. In Chad, finally, IS attackers killed five civilians in the western Lac region in the week of 16 November.

For more information see, see the monthly forecasts report for January 2020

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Please cite:  Hegre, Håvard, Marie Allansson, Matthias Basedau, Michael Colaresi, Mihai Croicu, Hanne Fjelde, Frederick Hoyles, Lisa Hultman, Stina Högbladh, Naima Mouhleb, Sayeed Auwn Muhammad, Desiree Nilsson, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Gudlaug Olafsdottir, Kristina Petrova, David Randahl, Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Nina von Uexkull, Jonas Vestby (2019) ‘ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system’, Journal of Peace Research, 56(2), pp. 155–174. doi: 10.1177/0022343319823860.