Independent variables

The ViEWS project uses a variety of variables to specify the models that are then used to predict the risk of armed conflict. Such variables contain data on a range of aspects that might influence the risk of conflict occurrence in a particular grid-cell or country. As a base we use information that tells us something about aspects that research has shown have an impact on conflict occurrence, gathered for each grid-cell. Some such aspects relate to spatial and temporal dimensions of conflict events while others regard topographic characteristics of the area. Moreover, we use variables that measure demographic features that capture the population size as well as the level of development and urbanisation. When raising our gaze to the country level we employ variables that capture country-specific factors such as the regime type and how long that regime type has persisted, the overall population size, GDP per capita and oil rents per capita. These variables are used in different combinations in order to specify models that as accurately as possible are able to assess the risk of conflict in the near future.

Find a complete list of the independent variables used as input into the models in the attached document (pdf). These contain the names of the variables as they are used in the data, descriptive labels as well as descriptions regarding where the data was found and how it might be changed (for instance whether it is in logarithmic or lagged form etc.).