Units of analysis

ViEWS will produce forecasts of large-scale armed conflict at three spatial units of analysis: countries (Gleditsch and Ward, 1999), sub-national geographical locations (Tollefsen et al., 2012; http://www.prio.org/Data/PRIO-GRID/), and actors (Sundberg and Melander, 2013; Croicu and Sundberg, 2017; http://ucdp.uu.se/). 

Temporally, ViEWS mainly operates on the monthly level. However, combinations of various resolutions (days, months, years) are also explored.

ViEWS currently estimates models at the country-month and priogrid-month levels. In addition, the ViEWS forecasts at the priogrid-month level incorporate combinations of predictions at the country and the priogrid level. The combined forecasts are currently generated by multiplying predictions at each level. In the future, ViEWS will research how to best combine the three levels by exploring multilevel models and Bayesian priors.

References

  • Gleditsch, K. S., & Ward, M. D. (1999). A Revised List of Independent States Since the Congress of Vienna. International Interactions, 25(4), 393-413.
  • Tollefsen, A. F., Strand, H., & Buhaug, H. (2012). PRIO-GRID: A Unified Spatial Data Structure. Journal of Peace Research, 49(2), 363-374.
  • Sundberg, R., & Melander, E. (2013). Introducing the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset. Journal of Peace Research, 50(4), 523-532.
  • Croicu, M., & Sundberg, R. (2017). UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset Codebook Version 17.1. Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University.