Papers, publications
- Randahl, David, 2022. "Inexorable Force or Dying Wave? Long term trends of democratization and the third wave of autocratization." Working Paper, Uppsala University.
- Vesco, Paola, Håvard Hegre, and Ole Magnus Theisen, 2022. "Too hot to handle? Climate shocks, societal vulnerability and conflict forecasting". Paper presented at the ISA Annual Convention 2022, Nashville, Tennessee.
- Randahl, David, 2021. "What’s missing? The effect of missing data and imputation techniques on predictive performance in forecasting civil war violence". Working Paper, Uppsala University.
- Paola Vesco, 2021. "A Climate of War or Peace? The Effect of Droughts on Conflict Dynamics". Paper presented at the virtual ISA Annual Convention 2021.
Appendix - Håvard Hegre, Forogh Akbari, Mihai Croicu, James Dale, Tim Gåsste, Remco Jansen, Peder Landsverk, Maxine Leis, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Hannes Mueller, Malika Rakhmankulova, David Randahl, Christopher Rauh, Espen Geelmuyden Rød & Paola Vesco, 2022. "Forecasting fatalities". Report, Uppsala University, 9 June 2022.
- Håvard Hegre, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, James Dale, Mihai Croicu, David Randahl & Paola Vesco, 2022. "Forecasting fatalities in armed conflict: Forecasts for April 2022-March 2025". Report, Uppsala University.
- David Randahl & Johan Vegelius, 2022. "Predicting Escalating and De-Escalating Violence in Africa Using Markov Models", International Interactions XX(x), DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2022.2049772
- Paola Vesco, Håvard Hegre, Michael Colaresi, Remco Bastiaan Jansen, Adeline Lo, Gregor Reisch & Nils B. Weidmann, 2022. "United They Stand: Findings from an Escalation Prediction Competition". International Interactions 48(4).
- Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, and Michael Colaresi, 2022. "Lessons from an Escalation Prediction Competition". International Interactions 48(x): 000-000.
- Paola Vesco, Matija Kovacic, Malcolm Mistry, Mihai Croicu, 2021. "Climate variability, crop and conflict: Exploring the impacts of spatial concentration in agricultural production". Journal of Peace Research 58(1).
- Ole Magnus Theisen, Håvard Hegre, Halvard Buhaug, Stefan Döring, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Ida Rudolfsen, Paola Vesco, Joaquin Salido Marcos, Yara Acaf, Pattile Nahabedian, and Lubna Ismail, 2021. "Understanding the potential linkages between climate change and conflict in the Arab region". United Nations publication, ESCWA.
- Gilmore, Elisabeth, Håvard Hegre, Gudlaug Olafsdottir, and Kristina Petrova, 2021. “The ‘conflict trap’ reduces economic growth in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.” Working Paper, Uppsala University.
- Hegre, Håvard, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Paola Vesco, and Malika Rakhmankulova, 2021. Forecasting armed conflict in the Sahel (pdf). Report written for the UNHCR.
- Randahl, David, and Johan Vegelius, 2021. ”Inference with extremes: Accounting for Extreme Values in Count Regression Models (pdf)”. Typescript Uppsala University.
- Hegre, Håvard, Curtis Bell, Michael Colaresi, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, David Randahl, Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Maxine Ria Leis and Paola Vesco, 2021. ‘ViEWS_2020: Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System’, Journal of Peace Research 58(3). doi: 10.1177/0022343320962157.
- Croicu, Mihai, and Håvard Hegre, 2018. "A Fast Spatial Multiple Imputation Procedure for Imprecise Armed Conflict Events (pdf)". Paper presented at the 59th Annual Convention International Studies Association, San Francisco, California
- Hegre, Håvard, Lisa Hultman, and Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, 2018. "Evaluating the conflict-reducing effect of UN peacekeeping operations (pdf)". Forthcoming in Journal of Politics. Appendix (pdf)
- Hegre, Håvard, Marie Allansson, Matthias Basedau, Michael Colaresi, Mihai Croicu, Hanne Fjelde, Frederick Hoyles, Lisa Hultman, Stina Högbladh, Naima Mouhleb, Sayeed Auwn Muhammad, Desiree Nilsson, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Gudlaug Olafsdottir, Kristina Petrova, David Randahl, Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Nina von Uexkull, Jonas Vestby (2019) ‘ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system’, Journal of Peace Research, 56(2), pp. 155–174. doi: 10.1177/0022343319823860.
- Hegre, Håvard, Mihai Croicu, Kristine Eck, and Stina Högbladh, 2018. "Introducing the UCDP-Candidate Events Dataset and the ViEWS Outcomes dataset. Monthly updated organized violence data in the form of events data as well as aggregated
to the country-month and PRIO-GRID-month level (pdf)". Typescript Uppsala University. - Colaresi, Michael, Håvard Hegre, and Jonas Nordkvelle, 2016. ‘Early ViEWS: A disaggregated, open-source violence early-warning system (pdf)'. Paper presented to the American Political Science Association annual meeting, Philadelphia, September 1.
- Håvard Hegre, Halvard Buhaug, Katherine V. Calvin, Jonas Nordkvelle, Stephanie T. Waldhoff, and Elisabeth Gilmore, 2016. ‘Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways’. Environmental Research Letters 11(5)054002
Last modified: 2022-08-19